Arterial Wave Reflections and Incident Cardiovascular Events and Heart FailureMESA (Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)
Table 3
Predictors of Incident Heart Failure in Multivariate Analysis (N = 5,934)⁎
| Predictor | Full Model With Adjusted HRs (c-Index: 0.802; AIC: 1893; BIC: 1943) | Effects of Adding Individual Predictors to a Model Containing All Other Variables | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standardized HR (95% CI) | Wald Statistic | p Value | Change in BIC† | Change in AIC† | Change in c-Index‡ | NRI‡ | IDI‡ | rIDI‡ | |
| Age (10 yrs) | 1.62 (1.26–2.08) | 14.44 | <0.0001 | –10.10 | –12.87 | 0.020 | 0.47§ | 0.010§ | 0.22§ |
| Male | 1.74 (1.38–2.21) | 21.37 | <0.0001 | –17.09 | –19.85 | 0.015 | 0.34§ | 0.017§ | 0.44§ |
| BMI (10 kg/m2) | 1.26 (1.03–1.55) | 4.83 | 0.028 | 0.15 | –2.62 | 0.007 | 0.32§ | 0.002 | 0.050 |
| Diabetes mellitus | 1.24 (1.07–1.44) | 8.37 | 0.004 | –3.09 | –5.86 | 0.010 | 0.019 | 0.003 | 0.061 |
| SBP (10 mm Hg) | 1.69 (1.33–2.13) | 18.97 | <0.0001 | –13.10 | –15.86 | 0.013 | 0.31§ | 0.011§ | 0.25§ |
| DBP (10 mm Hg) | 0.67 (0.52–0.86) | 9.71 | 0.002 | –4.94 | –7.70 | 0.006 | 0.15§ | 0.007§ | 0.14§ |
| Reflection magnitude (10%) | 1.61 (1.32–1.96) | 22.03 | <0.0001 | –17.79 | –20.55 | 0.011 | 0.38§ | 0.018§ | 0.48§ |
| SBP and DBP together∥ | — | — | — | –8.46 | –13.98 | 0.013 | 0.28§ | 0.011§ | 0.25§ |
AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion; IDI = integrated discrimination improvement; rIDI = relative integrated discrimination improvement; NRI = net reclassification improvement (category free); other abbreviations as in Tables 1 and 2.
↵⁎ Only significant predictors of CHF are shown. However, all models are also adjusted for ethnicity, antihypertensive medication use, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, current smoking, heart rate, and estimated GFR. All HRs are standardized.
↵† Larger decreases (changes with negative sign) indicate a larger improvement in model fit.
↵‡ Larger increases indicate a larger improvement in performance in reclassification or discrimination.
↵§ p < 0.05.
↵∥ Improvements in model performance when both SBP and DBP are added to a model containing all other variables contained in the full model.