Author + information
- Zeliha Koyak,
- Barbara Mulder,
- Aeilko Zwinderman,
- Louise Harris,
- Erwin Oechslin,
- Berto Bouma,
- Candice Silversides,
- Werner Budts,
- Isabelle van Gelder and
- Joris R. de Groot
The absolute risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is largely unknown in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD). This hampers accurate assessment of the individual patient's risk of SCD. We developed a risk scoring system to assess the absolute risk of SCD among adults with various CHD.
Predictors of SCD were previously derived from a case-controlled study and were 1) coronary artery disease, 2) heart failure 3) supraventricular tachycardias, 4) impaired systemic ventricular function, 5) impaired subpulmonary ventricular function, 6) QRS duration≥120ms and 7) QT dispersion≥70ms. We developed a point-based risk scoring system. Points were attributed to each variable depending on the B-coefficient. The calculation of the absolute risk of SCD was based on the number of risk factors present in one single patient and the a priori risk of SCD.
Three risk scores were constructed. Risk score 1 was based on the raw logistic regression coefficients. Risk score 2 was based on the rounded logistic regression coefficients. In risk score 3 one point was attributed to each variable. The C-index was 0.77, 0.77 and 0.76 for risk score model 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The simplified risk score 3 was used to calculate the absolute annual risk of SCD among various defects (Figure 1).
We developed and validated a simplified risk score model to predict the absolute risk of SCD in CHD. This might be useful guiding clinicians in decision making for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy.
Moderated Poster Contributions
Poster Sessions, Expo North
Sunday, March 10, 2013, 3:45 p.m.-4:30 p.m.
Session Title: Congenital Cardiology Solutions: New Insights into Congenital Heart Disease in the Adult
Abstract Category: 12. Congenital Cardiology Solutions: Adult
Presentation Number: 1249M-136
- 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation