Journal of the American College of Cardiology
2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular RiskA Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines
Table A
Equation Parameters of the Pooled Cohort Equations for Estimation of 10-Year Risk of Hard ASCVD∗ and Specific Examples for Each Race and Sex Group
| White | African American | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coefficient | Individual Example Value | Coefficient × Value† | Coefficient | Individual Example Value | Coefficient × Value† | |
| Women (Example: 55 years of age with total cholesterol 213 mg/dL, HDL-C 50 mg/dL, untreated systolic BP 120 mm Hg, nonsmoker, and without diabetes) | ||||||
| Ln Age (y) | –29.799 | 4.01 | –119.41 | 17.114 | 4.01 | 68.58 |
| Ln Age, Squared | 4.884 | 16.06 | 78.44 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ln Total Cholesterol (mg/dL) | 13.540 | 5.36 | 72.59 | 0.940 | 5.36 | 5.04 |
| Ln Age × Ln Total Cholesterol | –3.114 | 21.48 | –66.91 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ln HDL-C (mg/dL) | –13.578 | 3.91 | –53.12 | –18.920 | 3.91 | –74.01 |
| Ln Age × Ln HDL-C | 3.149 | 15.68 | 49.37 | 4.475 | 15.68 | 70.15 |
| Ln Treated Systolic BP (mm Hg) | 2.019 | — | — | 29.291 | — | — |
| Ln Age × Ln Treated Systolic BP | N/A | N/A | N/A | –6.432 | — | — |
| Ln Untreated Systolic BP (mm Hg) | 1.957 | 4.79 | 9.37 | 27.820 | 4.79 | 133.19 |
| Ln Age × Ln Untreated Systolic BP | N/A | N/A | N/A | –6.087 | 19.19 | –116.79 |
| Current Smoker (1=Yes, 0=No) | 7.574 | 0 | 0 | 0.691 | 0 | 0 |
| Ln Age × Current Smoker | –1.665 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Diabetes (1=Yes, 0=No) | 0.661 | 0 | 0 | 0.874 | 0 | 0 |
| Individual Sum | –29.67 | 86.16 | ||||
| Mean (Coefficient × Value) | N/A | N/A | –29.18 | N/A | N/A | 86.61 |
| Baseline Survival | N/A | N/A | 0.9665 | N/A | N/A | 0.9533 |
| Estimated 10-y Risk of Hard ASCVD | N/A | N/A | 2.1% | N/A | N/A | 3.0% |
| Men (Example: 55 years of age with total cholesterol 213 mg/dL, HDL-C 50 mg/dL, untreated systolic BP 120 mm Hg, nonsmoker, and without diabetes) | ||||||
| Ln Age (y) | 12.344 | 4.01 | 49.47 | 2.469 | 4.01 | 9.89 |
| Ln Total Cholesterol (mg/dL) | 11.853 | 5.36 | 63.55 | 0.302 | 5.36 | 1.62 |
| Ln Age × Ln Total Cholesterol | –2.664 | 21.48 | –57.24 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ln HDL-C (mg/dL) | –7.990 | 3.91 | –31.26 | –0.307 | 3.91 | –1.20 |
| Ln Age × Ln HDL-C | 1.769 | 15.68 | 27.73 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ln Treated Systolic BP (mm Hg) | 1.797 | — | — | 1.916 | — | — |
| Ln Untreated Systolic BP (mm Hg) | 1.764 | 4.79 | 8.45 | 1.809 | 4.79 | 8.66 |
| Current Smoker (1=Yes, 0=No) | 7.837 | 0 | 0 | 0.549 | 0 | 0 |
| Ln Age × Current Smoker | –1.795 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Diabetes (1=Yes, 0=No) | 0.658 | 0 | 0 | 0.645 | 0 | 0 |
| Individual Sum | 60.69 | 18.97 | ||||
| Mean (Coefficient × Value) | N/A | N/A | 61.18 | N/A | N/A | 19.54 |
| Baseline Survival | N/A | N/A | 0.9144 | N/A | N/A | 0.8954 |
| Estimated 10-y Risk of Hard ASCVD | N/A | N/A | 5.3% | N/A | N/A | 6.1% |
ASCVD indicates atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; BP indicates blood pressure; CHD, coronary heart disease; HDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; Ln, natural logarithm; and N/A, not included.
↵∗ Defined as first occurrence of nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke.
↵† Coefficient × Value: For age, lipids, and BP, defined as the natural log of the value multiplied by the parameter estimate. When an age interaction is present with lipids or BP, the natural log of age is multiplied by the natural log of the lipid or BP, and the result is multiplied by the parameter estimate. N/A indicates that that specific covariate was not included in the model for that sex–race group; — indicates that this value was not included in the example (e.g., this example used untreated systolic BP, not treated systolic BP).