Author + information
- Mitsuaki Sawano,
- Taku Inohara,
- Yasuyuki Shiraishi,
- Shun Kohsaka,
- Takashi Kohno,
- Ayumi Goda,
- Atsushi Mizuno,
- Yasumori Sujino,
- Yuji Nagatomo,
- Keitaro Mahara,
- Keiichi Fukuda and
- Tsutomu Yoshikawa
Background: Predictive models for heart failure patients such as the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score is used widely to stratify patients’ long-term risk, and can enable clinicians to tailor their approach. In this study, we aimed to validate the performance of the MAGGIC score and further explore the incremental prognostic value of discharge B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in Japanese acute heart failure patients.
Methods: The West Tokyo Heart Failure (WET-HF) registry is a large, ongoing, prospective, multicenter cohort registry conducted in Japan from April 2006 to August 2016. The MAGGIC score was calculated for each patient from 13 routinely collected patient characteristics. The predicted probability of death obtained from the MAGGIC score, with and without the addition of discharge BNP was compared with the observed 1-year mortality. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed by the c-statistic and by calibration plots.
Results: Overall, 1,160 patients with a median follow-up of 1.29 years (inter-quartile range 0.89-2.00 years) were evaluated. The mean age was 73.1±13.5, and 62.3% were male. The MAGGIC score demonstrated modest discrimination (C index = 0.66) and good calibration (R2 value=0.98) with constant overestimation for mortality; the predicted overall mortality with the MAGGIC score was 14.7%, whereas the observed 1-year mortality was 9.7%. However, when discharge plasma BNP level was added to MAGGIC score, the model demonstrated good discrimination (C index = 0.72) with adequate calibration (R2 value=0.98).
Conclusions: The MAGGIC heart failure risk score performs reasonably well in Japanese AHF patients over a single year time frame. The addition of discharge BNP seems to be reasonable to further enhance the performance in this dataset.
Poster Hall, Hall C
Sunday, March 19, 2017, 9:45 a.m.-10:30 a.m.
Session Title: The Evolving World of LVADs, Transplant and Other Novel Discoveries
Abstract Category: 13. Heart Failure and Cardiomyopathies: Clinical
Presentation Number: 1294-282
- 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation