Table 4

Prognostic Capability of Various Risk Scoring Systems Applied to the Stent-PAMI Validation Set

CADILLAC ScorePAMI ScoreZwolle ScoreTIMI Score
Area Under ROC Curve (cstatistic)Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit (p Value)Area Under ROC Curve (cstatistic)Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit (p Value)Area Under ROC Curve (cstatistic)Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit (p Value)Area Under ROC Curve (cstatistic)Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit (p Value)
30-day mortality0.810.560.780.420.740.160.700.06
1-year mortality0.780.550.770.400.740.040.690.04

The area under the ROC curve is a measure of a score’s discriminative capacity in assigning true-positive as opposed to false-positive rates for a given outcome. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test determines the difference between model-predicted event rates and observed event rates for a given outcome (goodness-of-fit is indicated by a p value >0.1) (23).

PCI = percutaneous coronary intervention; ROC = receiver-operating characteristic; TIMI = Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction.

  • The PAMI score (8), developed from PCI-treated patients enrolled in the various PAMI trials (N = 3,252), consists of five risk categories using the following predictors: age, diabetes, Killip class, heart rate, and anterior myocardial infarction or left bundle branch block.

  • The Zwolle score (9) was derived from a primary PCI registry (N = 1,791). It consists of eight risk variables including: age, Killip class, anterior myocardial infarction; triple vessel disease; ischemia time; and postprocedural TIMI flow.

  • The TIMI score (4), derived from the InTIME II thrombolysis trial database (N = 15,060), utilizes 10 risk variables: age, diabetes, history of hypertension, history of angina, admission blood pressure, admission heart rate, Killip class >1; weight; anterior myocardial infarction or left bundle branch block; and time to therapy.