Table 7

Evaluating the Incremental Value of CAPS to a Model With Clinical Variables Only (Additive EuroSCORE)

5-Year Probability of Event by Clinical Variables5-Year Probability of Event After CAPS Included
<10%10%–20%>20%Total
10%
 Case114015
 Non-case73410114
10%–20%
 Case36615
 Non-case1054981235
>20%
 Case021214
 Non-case3084150264
Total
 Case14121844
 Non-case208174231613

Net reclassification improvement calculation: 48 month follow-up data rescaled to 5 years, allowing comparison with published 5 year outcomes using additive EuroSCOREs. Patients experiencing death: 10 patients were reclassified upwards and 5 patients were reclassified downward. Net percentage classified = (10–5)/44 = 11.4%. Patients not experiencing death: 219 patients reclassified downward, and 122 patients reclassified upward; net percentage classified = (219–122)/613 = 15.8%. Net reclassification improvement = (11.4% + 15.8%) = 27.2% (p = 0.003).

CAPS = coronary artery protection score; EuroSCORE = European Systems for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation.