Table 2

Conventional Risk Factors and Biomarkers for Prediction of Incident HF and AF

HF Model 1HF Model 2AF Model 1AF Model 2
Age1.12 (1.07–1.16)1.09 (1.04–1.13)1.11 (1.08–1.14)1.09 (1.06–1.12)
Female sex0.52 (0.35–0.77)0.48 (0.31–0.75)0.61 (0.48–0.78)0.55 (0.42–0.70)
Body mass index1.05 (1.00–1.10)1.03 (0.98–1.09)1.05 (1.02–1.08)1.05 (1.01–1.08)
SBP1.01 (1.00–1.02)1.01 (1.00–1.02)
DBP0.98 (0.96–1.00)0.99 (0.98–1.01)
Antihypertensive treatment2.40 (1.59–3.62)1.91 (1.20–3.04)1.38 (1.04–1.84)1.21 (0.89–1.64)
LDL cholesterol1.05 (1.02–1.08)0.90 (0.78–1.02)
History of MI4.13 (2.29–7.44)3.07 (1.64–5.76)2.64 (1.57–4.44)1.81 (1.05–3.13)
History of diabetes2.82 (1.81–4.39)2.93 (1.82–4.70)
Current smoking1.71 (1.13–2.59)1.56 (0.99–2.46)
lnMR-proANP1.68 (1.41–2.00)1.26 (1.02–1.56)1.67 (1.47–1.89)1.62 (1.42–1.84)
lnNT-proBNP1.95 (1.63–2.34)1.63 (1.29–2.06)1.45 (1.28–1.65)
MR-proADM1.35 (1.17–1.56)1.26 (1.12–1.41)
lnCRP1.67 (1.37–2.03)1.57 (1.28–1.94)1.17 (1.04–1.33)1.18 (1.03–1.34)
CystC1.20 (1.06–1.36)1.11 (1.00–1.24)
lnCopeptin1.35 (1.03–1.77)1.09 (0.95–1.26)

Shown are hazards ratios for conventional risk factors and biomarkers per SD with 95% confidence intervals from Cox proportional hazards models. Results are shown for each end point for a model with only conventional risk factors and for single biomarkers with adjustment for conventional risk factors (model 1) and models with all individually significant biomarkers adjusted for traditional risk factors and backward elimination at p ≥ 0.05 (model 2).

AF = atrial fibrillation; BMI = body mass index; CRP = C-reactive protein; CystC = cystatin C; DBP = diastolic blood pressure; HF = heart failure; LDL = low-density lipoprotein; ln = natural log transformed; MI = myocardial infarction; MR-proADM = midregional pro-adrenomedullin; MR-proANP = midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide; NT-proBNP = N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide; SBP = systolic blood pressure.