Table A

Equation Parameters of the Pooled Cohort Equations for Estimation of 10-Year Risk of Hard ASCVD and Specific Examples for Each Race and Sex Group

WhiteAfrican American
CoefficientIndividual Example
Value
Coefficient
× Value
CoefficientIndividual Example
Value
Coefficient
× Value
Women (Example: 55 years of age with total cholesterol 213 mg/dL, HDL-C 50 mg/dL, untreated systolic BP 120 mm Hg, nonsmoker, and without diabetes)
 Ln Age (y)–29.7994.01–119.4117.1144.0168.58
 Ln Age, Squared4.88416.0678.44N/AN/AN/A
 Ln Total Cholesterol (mg/dL)13.5405.3672.590.9405.365.04
 Ln Age × Ln Total Cholesterol–3.11421.48–66.91N/AN/AN/A
 Ln HDL-C (mg/dL)–13.5783.91–53.12–18.9203.91–74.01
 Ln Age × Ln HDL-C3.14915.6849.374.47515.6870.15
 Ln Treated Systolic BP (mm Hg)2.01929.291
 Ln Age × Ln Treated Systolic BPN/AN/AN/A–6.432
 Ln Untreated Systolic BP (mm Hg)1.9574.799.3727.8204.79133.19
 Ln Age × Ln Untreated Systolic BPN/AN/AN/A–6.08719.19–116.79
 Current Smoker (1=Yes, 0=No)7.574000.69100
 Ln Age × Current Smoker–1.66500N/AN/AN/A
 Diabetes (1=Yes, 0=No)0.661000.87400
 Individual Sum–29.6786.16
 Mean (Coefficient × Value)N/AN/A–29.18N/AN/A86.61
 Baseline SurvivalN/AN/A0.9665N/AN/A0.9533
 Estimated 10-y Risk of Hard ASCVDN/AN/A2.1%N/AN/A3.0%
Men (Example: 55 years of age with total cholesterol 213 mg/dL, HDL-C 50 mg/dL, untreated systolic BP 120 mm Hg, nonsmoker, and without diabetes)
 Ln Age (y)12.3444.0149.472.4694.019.89
 Ln Total Cholesterol (mg/dL)11.8535.3663.550.3025.361.62
 Ln Age × Ln Total Cholesterol–2.66421.48–57.24N/AN/AN/A
 Ln HDL-C (mg/dL)–7.9903.91–31.26–0.3073.91–1.20
 Ln Age × Ln HDL-C1.76915.6827.73N/AN/AN/A
 Ln Treated Systolic BP (mm Hg)1.7971.916
 Ln Untreated Systolic BP (mm Hg)1.7644.798.451.8094.798.66
 Current Smoker (1=Yes, 0=No)7.837000.54900
 Ln Age × Current Smoker–1.79500N/AN/AN/A
 Diabetes (1=Yes, 0=No)0.658000.64500
 Individual Sum60.6918.97
 Mean (Coefficient × Value)N/AN/A61.18N/AN/A19.54
 Baseline SurvivalN/AN/A0.9144N/AN/A0.8954
 Estimated 10-y Risk of Hard ASCVDN/AN/A5.3%N/AN/A6.1%

ASCVD indicates atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; BP indicates blood pressure; CHD, coronary heart disease; HDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; Ln, natural logarithm; and N/A, not included.

  • Defined as first occurrence of nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke.

  • Coefficient × Value: For age, lipids, and BP, defined as the natural log of the value multiplied by the parameter estimate. When an age interaction is present with lipids or BP, the natural log of age is multiplied by the natural log of the lipid or BP, and the result is multiplied by the parameter estimate. N/A indicates that that specific covariate was not included in the model for that sex–race group; — indicates that this value was not included in the example (e.g., this example used untreated systolic BP, not treated systolic BP).